By Miki Halevi

An In-Depth Analysis of the Strategic Airstrike on Iran
In the early hours of the 26th, a significant military operation code-named “Days
of Repentance” unfolded, with Israel reportedly launching nearly 80 aircraft in a
meticulously planned airstrike targeting critical military infrastructure within Iran.
This operation, which took place at approximately 2:00 a.m., was strategically
designed to minimise Israel’s vulnerability to Iranian air defences while ensuring
the maximum impact on Iran’s military capabilities while reducing human deaths
to the maximum. The strike’s tactical complexity exemplifies a high degree of
coordination across multiple theatres, including Jordan, Syria, and Iraq, and
involved precise air-to-air refuelling operations and neutralisation of regional
defence systems.
The Routes and Strategy of the Israeli Air Force
The Israeli Air Force (IAF) orchestrated a three-wave assault, each phase with
distinct objectives, marking a significant escalation in the Israel-Iran
confrontation. The initial wave sought to incapacitate Iran’s surface-to-air missile
(SAM) sites, radar installations, and critical air defence coordination centres in
Tehran, Ilam, and Qazvin. These attacks disrupted the early-warning systems
vital for Iran’s defensive response and compromised the command structure
overseeing air defence operations.
The second wave specifically targeted Iran’s ballistic missile infrastructure,
aiming to neutralise missile storage sites and manufacturing facilities. The
objective was clear: to mitigate Iran’s capacity for retaliatory strikes by turning
off its offensive arsenal. The IDF deployed a range of precision-guided
munitions, notably the advanced Rocks extended standoff air-to-surface missile,
to deliver these strikes from considerable distances without breaching Iranian
airspace.
In the final wave, the IAF shifted its focus to military production sites, seeking to
degrade Iran’s capability to sustain long-term military operations. Targets
reportedly included the Kadiri Barracks, the Hassan Kham Kasan missile
manufacturing complex, the Sepah Air Force Logistics Centre, and the Imam Ali
Barracks. Each site holds strategic value in Iran’s military production and
logistics
chain, critical components of Iran’s missile manufacturing
infrastructure.
Critical Tactical Assets: Israeli Fighter Jets and Missiles
The primary spearhead of Israel’s attack fleet comprised fifth-generation F-35
fighter jets, augmented by F-16 air superiority jets and F-15 ground-attack
fighters. These assets enabled the IAF to cover approximately 1,600 km (about
1,000 miles), reaching deep into Iranian territory with sufficient tactical
endurance. To sustain such an operation, aerial refuelling tankers were
deployed to ensure aircraft could conduct extended sorties and engage in
potential aerial combat if required.
Israel’s weapons selection showcased its advancements in standoff missile
technology. The Rocks missile, in particular, embodies Israel’s next-generation
approach to air-to-surface engagement. This extended-range, supersonic
missile allows pilots to retain control over trajectory and terminal impact,
compensating for any target movement or relocation in real time. Its GPS
enabled inertial guidance system, paired with an imaging infrared seeker for the
terminal phase, ensures high accuracy in high-threat environments.
Iran’s Defensive Response and the Performance of the Bavar-373
System
Despite the intensity of Israel’s assault, Iran’s Bavar-373 air defence system
displayed a degree of resilience that exceeded expectations but revealed their
exact locations. Designed with dual rectangular launch canisters housing
Sayyad-4 missiles, the Bavar-373 incorporates a phased array radar system
capable of tracking aerodynamic and ballistic targets over medium to long
ranges. The Meraj-4 radar, which operates within a range of 450 km, reportedly
enabled Iran to detect and intercept specific incoming threats.
Although Israel's precision strikes partially compromised Iran’s air defence
network, the Bavar-373 system, along with the Russian-made S-300 missile
system, managed to intercept several Israeli drones and some missiles, giving
positions. The S-300, with a maximum engagement range of up to 120 km
(approximately 75 miles), complements the Bavar-373 and is a critical asset in
Iran’s layered defence network. Many of these anti-air systems were destroyed.
Israel’s Precision in Targeting and Use of Ballistic Missiles
A particularly noteworthy aspect of the operation was the employment of the
LORA (Long Range Artillery) ballistic missile system. Precision-engineered for
deep-strike capabilities, the LORA missile is guided by GPS and an inertial
navigation system, effectively evading jamming attempts. It travels at supersonic
speeds, approaching targets at a steep angle to maximise penetration and
destructiveness. This capability enabled Israel to engage heavily fortified
bunkers and other strategic assets without necessarily breaching Iran’s
airspace.
The LORA missile’s use underscores Israel’s commitment to precision warfare.
Israel’s operational approach reflects an evolved military doctrine favouring
minimal direct engagement with enemy air defences by striking targets from
altitudes and trajectories that minimise exposure to hostile air defences.
The Iranian Air Force: Capabilities and Limitations
In assessing Iran’s response capacity, attention must be given to the Iranian Air
Force, which relies on a diverse yet ageing fleet. At the forefront are
approximately 64 F-4 Phantom jets and 40 F-14 Tomcats, both American
manufactured during the Shah’s era, representing the backbone of Iran’s air
defence capabilities. Supplemented by around 30 MiG-29 multi-role fighters
from Russia, these aircraft are configured for air-to-air engagements and ground
attack operations but face considerable technological gaps compared to Israel’s
F-35s and advanced radar systems.
Iran’s defensive architecture, supported by the S-300 and Bavar-373 systems,
offers moderate protection but lacks the layered redundancy and technical
sophistication seen in Israeli defence capabilities. Despite Iran’s partial success
in intercepting drones and missiles, its capacity to counter sustained aerial
assaults from a technologically advanced adversary remains constrained.
Strategic and Geopolitical Implications
Israel’s “Days of Repentance” operation marks a significant intensification in the
ongoing shadow conflict between Israel and Iran, with far-reaching implications
for regional stability. The decision to launch a three-wave assault aimed at
crippling Iran’s missile capabilities reflects Israel’s determination to pre
emptively neutralise threats from Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal. Furthermore,
the operation underscores the sophistication and operational reach of Israel’s
military, highlighting its capability to conduct complex, coordinated strikes
across multiple borders.
Iran’s response capabilities, while somewhat effective, reveal the challenges it
faces in countering advanced, multidimensional threats from a state like Israel.
Though commendable, the Bavar-373 system's resilience underscores a
broader limitation in Iran’s capacity to maintain sustained air defence against a
technologically superior adversary. This attack may serve as a precursor to
further escalations, compelling Iran to bolster its air defence infrastructure and
reconsider its regional posture.
In conclusion, the “Days of Repentance” operation is emblematic of a new phase
in the Israel-Iran conflict, where technology, precision, and strategic depth are
paramount. The tactical and logistical sophistication of Israel’s assault,
juxtaposed with Iran’s constrained yet resilient defensive response, paints a
vivid picture of the current military dynamics in the Middle East. Whether this
strike will serve as a deterrent or a catalyst for further hostilities remains to be
seen. Still, it undeniably signals Israel’s willingness to act decisively in the face
of perceived existential threats.